Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 20.806389 22.708994 24.824231 27.374515 30.399705 33.918342 38.389438
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 18.059594 20.556185 23.547510 27.483294 32.670411 39.509321 49.674111
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 16.238858 19.063854 22.646167 27.703029 35.004119 45.845431 64.905551
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 14.883945 17.892481 21.881225 27.847928 37.180449 52.704359 85.457471
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 13.714730 16.780707 20.985212 27.568920 38.575133 58.849516 110.442918
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 12.865637 15.985639 20.393781 27.590489 40.412047 66.646342 150.149253
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 12.093140 15.207115 19.711679 27.319483 41.624659 73.831316 204.264194
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 11.439113 14.531554 19.096134 27.037815 42.721238 81.468969 289.703690
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 10.887221 13.954881 18.564894 26.805089 43.845349 90.060828 445.491508
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 10.421055 13.466832 18.120087 26.650597 45.095333 100.188563 804.411548
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 9.924028 12.896677 17.490344 26.062661 45.204341 106.775612 1512.934048
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 9.786736 12.863286 17.729440 27.152272 49.705679 136.072807 NaN
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 9.417988 12.451885 17.309566 26.904279 50.774502 152.556511 NaN
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 9.129639 12.149977 17.052410 26.955711 52.732674 178.798092 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 8.886113 11.904347 16.871811 27.142403 55.197745 216.728577 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 8.653366 11.662037 16.676667 27.269993 57.574226 265.721405 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 8.382746 11.343507 16.321220 26.994872 58.553984 308.313620 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 8.171573 11.111758 16.106536 27.012952 60.615916 385.428629 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 7.939185 10.833656 15.787858 26.750132 61.584360 461.408158 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 7.721244 10.570032 15.479731 26.477659 62.459961 559.343300 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 7.523063 10.331183 15.203776 26.252700 63.489947 702.712130 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 7.346002 10.120664 14.969005 26.103395 64.829800 941.519960 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 7.131104 9.837983 14.581893 25.535452 64.155448 1069.184824 NaN